Why Do We Keep Setting Older Mares Up to Fail? Six Years of Data Show We're Cataloging Them Where They Can't Succeed
By Kyle Rothfus, Co-Founder, Mareworthy Charities
The Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale is celebrating historic strength through Books 1-3 (Sessions 1-5), with a median price for broodmares of $120,000 representing a 30.4% increase over last year. Two broodmares tied for the top broodmare price this year at $2,300,000, and total gross for broodmares through five sessions reached $97.3 million.
But beneath these record-breaking numbers, a six-year data analysis reveals a troubling trend: while younger mares are increasingly being cataloged in elite early sessions, older mares are being pushed into late sessions at growing rates—exactly where reduced buyer attention, depleted budgets, and end-of-sale exhaustion set them up for the worst possible outcomes.
Starting today, 71 broodmares age 14 and older will sell in Sessions 6-9. The question isn't whether people will sell older mares—they will. The question is: why are we cataloging them in the sessions where they have the least chance of success?
A Note on Analysis
This analysis examines mares catalogued as broodmares only. It does not include weanlings or broodmare prospects. For clarity, Sessions 1-5 correspond to Books 1-3 in both 2024 and 2025, while Sessions 6-9 covered Books 4-5 in prior years and will cover Book 4 only in 2025.
The Stratification Shift: A Six-Year Trend
Since 2019, Keeneland has shown a clear pattern: every age group under 14 is moving INTO early sessions, while mares 14+ are being pushed INTO late sessions.
The Trend (2019 → 2024)
Moving TO Early Sessions (Better Platform):
Ages 3-5: 48.6% → 34.0% in late sessions (-14.6 points)
Ages 6-10: 57.1% → 48.6% in late sessions (-8.5 points)
Ages 11-13: 64.6% → 60.2% in late sessions (-4.4 points)
Under 14 overall: 55.3% → 45.2% in late sessions (-10.1 points)
Moving TO Late Sessions (Worse Platform):
Ages 14+: 62.3% → 68.3% in late sessions (+6.1 points)
Ages 16+: 57.1% → 78.4% in late sessions (+21.3 points!)
The data is unambiguous: the elite books are getting younger by design, and older mares are bearing the brunt of that shift.
What Session Placement Actually Means
Session placement isn't just about timing—it's about platform, attention, and buyer engagement:
Early Sessions (1-5) Advantages:
Fresh buyers with full budgets
Maximum media attention and social coverage
Peak pavilion attendance
Buyers actively looking for opportunities
Late Sessions (6-9) Disadvantages:
Depleted budgets after five days of buying
Reduced media coverage as attention shifts elsewhere
Buyer fatigue and exhaustion
Lower pavilion attendance, especially Sessions 8-9 on final day
Rush to finish and leave
Of the 71 mares age 14+ cataloged in Sessions 6-9, 32 will sell in Session 8 on the final day—when the pavilion is emptying, buyers are packing up, and the sale is winding down.
The Price Impact: What Happens in Late Sessions
While all broodmares experience price drops in late sessions, the pattern is remarkably consistent across six years. More importantly, the absolute dollar amounts in late sessions determine pipeline risk—and older mares consistently land in the danger zone.
The pattern: Both age groups experience 85-90% price drops in late sessions. But the landing zones tell different stories:
Younger mares (under 14) in late sessions: Average $18K-$24K, Median $9K-$17K
Older mares (14+) in late sessions: Average $9K-$15K, Median $5.5K-$8.5K
The danger zone: In my October 2024 Paulick Report analysis, I showed that median prices drop to $13,000 at age 16 and $5,000 by age 19. Six years of late-session data confirms this pattern—older mares consistently hit median prices of $5,500-$8,500 in late sessions, exactly where:
Buyers are often more interested in the baby in the belly than the future of the mare
Horses change hands multiple times rapidly
Traceability systems break down
Industry oversight disappears
Even in 2022, when early-session older mares averaged $221,604, they plummeted to $9,161 (median $7,000) in late sessions. The session placement effect is consistent and devastating, regardless of broader market strength.
The Recommendation: If You're Going to Sell Them, Give Them a Platform
I can't stop people from selling older mares. Breeding decisions, farm economics, and personal circumstances will always result in mares 14+ entering the sales ring.
But if we're going to sell them, why are we cataloging them where they're set up to fail?
The data shows:
Younger mares are increasingly being placed in early sessions (better outcomes)
Older mares are increasingly being pushed to late sessions (worse outcomes)
Session placement dramatically impacts both price and buyer attention
The concentration shift is accelerating
The industry should reverse this trend for older mares. If a mare 14+ has the credentials to be in the sale at all, she deserves:
Maximum buyer attention in early sessions
Fresh budgets and engaged buyers
Proper time for evaluation and competitive bidding
The best possible platform for finding a responsible buyer
What This Looks Like in Practice:
For Consignors:
Evaluate older mares for early session placement based on produce record, pedigree, and physical condition
If a mare doesn't meet the bar for early sessions, consider if she should be in the sale at all
Present retirement alternatives alongside sales planning
For Sales Companies:
Re-examine cataloging criteria that automatically push all 14+ mares to late books
Consider produce record and family strength over age alone for older mares
Recognize that late session placement creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of poor outcomes
For Sellers:
If your mare warrants selling, advocate for early session placement
If she can't compete for early sessions, seriously evaluate private placement or retirement
Understand that late session placement isn't just about timing—it's about setting up for failure
The Alternative: Retirement Before Risk
Of course, the best solution remains not selling older mares at public auction at all:
Mares Should Be Retired Before They Reach High-Risk Status:
Over 16 years old
More than 5 foals without strong produce
Repeated complications getting pregnant or maintaining pregnancy
Declining physical condition requiring significant intervention
Industry leaders like Claiborne Farm have implemented age cutoffs for their broodmare bands. This practice should become standard.
But for those who will sell older mares, the data shows that session placement matters enormously. We can't control whether people sell them, but we can control where we catalog them.
The 71 Mares: Sessions 6-9 Starting Today
Despite everything the data shows, 71 broodmares age 14+ will sell in Sessions 6-9 this year:
Session-by-Session Breakdown:
Session 6 (Sunday): 7 mares age 14+
Session 7 (Sunday): 16 mares age 14+
Session 8 (Tuesday): 32 mares age 14+ (final day, maximum exhaustion)
Session 9 (Tuesday): 16 mares age 14+ (final session)
This includes:
27 mares age 16+
7 mares age 18+
1 mare age 20
If historical patterns hold, they'll face:
Median prices of $6,000-$8,500
Clearance rates around 70% (21 will RNA)
Dramatically reduced buyer attention
End-of-sale fatigue and depleted budgets
Three Case Studies: Why Are We Still Doing This?
Among the 71 older mares cataloged in Sessions 6-9, three stand out as examples of the broader question: If a mare's declining performance and diminishing value make the outcome predictable, why continue breeding her only to put her through another public sale?
Alpha Centauri (Hip 2726, Session 8)
18 years old | Dynaformer – Prima Centauri, by Distant View
Sales History:
2007 (weanling): Sold for $600,000
2021 (age 14, broodmare): Sold for $50,000 at Keeneland November
2023 (age 16, broodmare): RNA'd at Keeneland November - highest bid $3,000 (did not meet reserve)
2025 (age 18): Back in Session 8 on final day, in foal to Vino Rosso
Produce Record: 9 foals, 7 starters, 4 winners, 1 black-type placer. Total progeny earnings: $462,225.
Breeding Pattern:
2013-2018: Consistent production – six consecutive foals with no gaps (2016 foal died)
2019: Bred but not pregnant
2020-2022: Three consecutive foals
2023: Bred but barren
2024: Foal born
2025: Bred but not pregnant (no 2025 foal)
2026: Currently in foal
The trajectory: From $600K weanling to $50K broodmare (92% decline) to RNA at $3,000 at age 16. Now back at 18, after showing gaps in production and no improvement in her offspring's performance.
The question: The highest bid she received two years ago was $3,000. What has changed to justify breeding her again and putting her back in the ring at 18—in Session 8, when buyers are exhausted and leaving?
J T Safe At Home (Hip 2851, Session 8)
17 years old | Bernstein – High Heeled Hope, by Salt Lake
Sales History:
2008 (weanling): Sold for $250,000
2010 (two-year-old): Sold for $200,000
2013 (broodmare): Sold for $20,000
2014 (broodmare): Sold for $75,000 (brief recovery)
2018 (broodmare): RNA'd - highest bid $27,000 (did not meet reserve)
2021 (broodmare): Sold for $1,000
2022 (broodmare): RNA'd - highest bid $10,000 (did not meet reserve)
2024 (broodmare, digital sale): Sold for $5,500
2025 (age 17): Back in Session 8, in foal to Corniche
Produce Record: 9 foals, 6 starters, 4 winners, 1 black-type placer. Total progeny earnings: $236,882.
The trajectory: From $250K weanling to four sales attempts in seven years (2018, 2021, 2022, 2024), RNA'ing twice with reserves that couldn't be met. Last successful sale: $5,500 in 2024.
The pattern:
2018: RNA, highest bid $27,000
2021: Sold for $1,000 (96% below the highest bid she received in 2018)
2022: RNA, highest bid $10,000
2024: Sold for $5,500 (45% below the highest bid in 2022)
2025: Back again at 17
The question: She's been through the ring four times since 2018, RNA'ing twice when she received bids of $27K and $10K. Last year she sold for $5,500. Why are we breeding her again for 2026 and putting her in Session 8? What outcome justifies continuing this cycle?
You're Beingplayed (Hip 2993, Session 9)
18 years old | Speightstown – Unbridled Run, by Unbridled
Sales History:
2008 (yearling): Sold for $72,000
2012 (broodmare): Sold for $105,000
2013 (broodmare): Sold for $150,000 (peak)
2019 (broodmare): Sold for $50,000
2024 (age 17, broodmare): RNA'd in Session 8, Book 5 - highest bid $1,700 (did not meet reserve)
2025 (age 18): Back in Session 9 (final session), in foal to Title Ready
Produce Record: 8 foals, 6 starters, 1 winner. Total progeny earnings: $66,176.
2022: Foal born dead
2025: Barren
The trajectory: From $150K peak in 2013 to $50K in 2019 to RNA at $1,700 in 2024. Declining produce performance (only 1 winner from 6 starters, minimal earnings), recent foal loss, and a barren year.
The question: The highest bid she received last year was $1,700—less than the cost of mare care for a month. Her produce record shows one winner from six starters earning a combined $66,176. She was barren this year. Why breed her again for 2026 and put her in Session 9, the absolute final session, when the best offer she got twelve months ago was $1,700?
What These Three Mares Represent
These aren't isolated cases. They represent systemic failures in decision-making:
The Pattern of Unrealistic Expectations
Alpha Centauri: Highest bid $3,000, RNA (2023) → bred again → Session 8 (2025)
J T Safe At Home: Highest bids $27,000 (2018), $10,000 (2022), both RNA → sold for $5,500 (2024) → bred again → Session 8 (2025)
You're Beingplayed: Highest bid $1,700, RNA (2024) → bred again → Session 9 (2025)
The RNA bids tell the story. These aren't cases where sellers withdrew mares because the market was soft. These are cases where buyers made offers—$3,000, $10,000, $1,700—and sellers said no, those weren't enough. The market spoke: these mares, at these ages, with these produce records, are not holding value, so why keep cataloguing them?
And yet, each was bred again for the following year and put back in the ring.
Why This Matters
The math doesn't work: When you breed a mare who received a top bid of $1,700, the stud fee plus mare care plus foaling costs far exceed any realistic sale outcome
The produce doesn't justify it: Combined, these three mares have 26 foals with total earnings of $765,283—an average of $29,434 per foal
The trend lines are clear: Every indicator points downward—produce performance, sale bids, breeding consistency
The session placement compounds failure: Even if you ignore everything else, cataloging them in Sessions 8-9 on the final day guarantees the worst possible platform
The Real Question
If the last buyer couldn't make these mares work—if someone bought J T Safe At Home for $5,500 in 2024 and is now selling her in Session 8, or if You're Beingplayed received a top bid of $1,700 that was rejected and is now back—why do we expect different results?
The answer: We shouldn't. These mares should have been retired, not bred again for 2026. Their trajectories were clear. The market signals were unambiguous. The bids they received showed exactly what buyers thought they were worth—and sellers said those bids weren't enough.
Breeding them again and consigning them to Sessions 8 and 9 isn't hopeful—it's denial. And it's unfair to the mares, who deserve retirement after giving what they could give, not another round through a system that has already determined their market value.
If We Must Sell Them, At Least Give Them a Chance
This is why the stratification data matters. If someone is determined to sell an older mare—despite everything the data shows—at minimum, catalog her where she has some chance of buyer attention and competitive bidding.
These three mares are in Sessions 8-9 on the final day. Not because they belong there based on quality, but because that's where all older mares are being pushed. The same sessions where younger mares are moving OUT of, older mares are being concentrated INTO.
Alpha Centauri went from $600K to $50K to a top bid of $3K (RNA) to Session 8. The trend line doesn't improve from here. The compassionate, economically rational decision was retirement, not breeding for 2026 and Session 8.
What I'll Be Watching
I'll be at Keeneland through Tuesday watching these mares sell in person. Not to shame anyone, but to maintain visibility and accountability.
I'll be tracking:
Which mares find responsible buyers with long-term plans
Which consignors made efforts to place mares appropriately
Which buyers step up with retirement commitments
Which mares disappear into untraceable sales
Mareworthy's "We Are Watching" page will track every broodmare 16+ through these sales. Transparency creates accountability.
If you own, lease, or board any of these mares after the sale, please use The Jockey Club Traceability Survey to report their status, or contact Mareworthy at info@mareworthy.com.
The Broader Context: Record Sales and Growing Stratification
The juxtaposition couldn't be sharper:
Broodmares in Sessions 1-5 (Just Concluded):
Median: $120,000 (+30.4%)
Average: $187,545 (+17.2%)
Top broodmare prices: $2,300,000 (two mares)
Strong clearance rates across all price points
Ages 3-5: 76.4% clearance, $237K average
Broodmares in Sessions 6-9 (Starting Tomorrow):
Historic data: $6K-$8.5K median for 14+ mares
11.8% of catalog is 14+
70.3% of ALL mares 14+ are cataloged here
Session 8 alone has 32 older mares on final day
The broodmare market has never been stronger for young, commercial stock. But the growing stratification means older mares face increasingly difficult platforms for finding responsible outcomes.
What Needs to Change: A Call to Action
The six-year data proves this is systemic, not anecdotal:
Elite books are getting younger (all ages under 14 moving to early sessions)
Older mares are being pushed to late sessions (+6.1 points since 2019, +21.3 for 16+)
Late session placement correlates with poor outcomes (85-90% price drops, danger-zone pricing)
The trend is accelerating, not improving
The industry can:
Reverse the cataloging trend for older mares with credentials
Implement age-based breeding cutoffs before mares reach high-risk categories
Support retirement infrastructure so selling isn't the only option
Improve traceability for all low-priced sales
Celebrate responsible decisions to withdraw or retire mares
But at minimum: If we're going to sell older mares, let's give them the same platform advantages we're increasingly giving to younger stock. The data shows younger mares are moving to early sessions for good reason—those reasons apply to older mares too.
Session placement isn't destiny, but it dramatically shapes outcomes. Seventy-one older mares deserve better than being cataloged for failure.
Kyle Rothfus is co-founder of Mareworthy Charities and co-owner of Horse Husband Stables. His October 2024 analysis in Paulick Report, "Here's How To Protect Retired Broodmares From The Slaughter Pipeline," examined over 22,600 sales records from Keeneland's November and January sales between 2015-2024.
For more information about mare retirement planning, visit Mareworthy.com. To view the "We're Watching" tracking page, visit mareworthy.com/we-are-watching. To support our work building sustainable upstream solutions, please consider donating.
